Trump Trails Kamala Harris in Swing State Poll by Conservative Group

Former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, trails Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, in the swing state of Michigan, according to a poll by conservative group American Greatness that was released on Friday.
The poll released by the American Greatness/TIPP, which describes itself as aiming to be “the leading voice of the next generation of American Conservatism,” and conducted by TechnoMetrica shows Harris leading Trump in Michigan by two points—48 to 46 percent. The poll with a sample of 1,001 registered voters in Michigan was conducted between August 20 to 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Battleground states, including Michigan, will play a key role in determining the result of this year’s election due to the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes based on population. A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success. Surveys from battleground states may be more telling than those of national polls.
In order for Harris to realistically win more than 100 Electoral College votes than Trump, she would have to triumph in every battleground state, including those won by Trump in 2016 and 2020.
Trump previously won Michigan in 2016 with 47.3 percent against his Democratic opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. However, President Joe Biden won the state back for Democrats in 2020 with 50.6 percent to Trump’s 47.8 percent.
In response to American Greatness’ poll, Trump’s spokesperson Steven Cheung said in an emailed statement to Newsweek on Sunday afternoon, “President Trump dominates Comrade Kamala in Michigan, with the RCP average showing him leading by over 2 points.”
However, according RealClearPolitics, which shows the latest polling average as of Friday, Harris is in the lead in the state with 48.5 percent to Trump’s 46.5 percent.
Newsweek has reached out to Harris’ campaign via email for comment.
This comes after the Democratic presidential ticket has seen a dramatic reversal in the polls since Biden made the unprecedented decision to drop out of the race on July 21 and endorse Harris. She has surged in the polls—leading Trump in national and swing state polling averages whereas Biden was generally behind.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling, as of Sunday afternoon, Harris leads Trump by 3.3 points with 46.8 percent to Trump’s 43.5 percent.
Meanwhile, according to The Economist’s national forecast model published last Friday, Harris and Trump have about a 1 in 2 chance of winning the Electoral College.
The election forecast shows that the median likely range of total electoral votes for Harris is at 272 while Trump is at 266. This is a change from the 2020 election which saw Trump with 232 electoral votes and Biden with 306, according to the forecast.
According to The Economist, the model estimates each major candidate’s chances of winning each state and the overall Electoral College. Developed by Columbia University, the forecast combines national and state-level polls with fundamental data about the state of the economy, historical voting patterns and the demographics of each state to predict the likelihood of various outcomes of the race by constructing thousands of scenarios.
Most notably, the forecast model shows Pennsylvania having the highest chance at 24 percent of being the state that decides the election with 19 electoral votes.
An Emerson College and RealClear Pennsylvania poll that was published last week showed that out of 1,000 likely Pennsylvanian voters surveyed on August 13 and 14, 49 percent backed Trump while 48 percent backing Harris. The poll has a margin of error of 3 percent, meaning the candidates are in a statistical tie.
Update: 8/25/24, 5:08 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Cheung.